The Coming Changes to Manufacturing
Recently, I spoke with someone on a team analyzing ways to “mitigate the risk of exclusive manufacturing in China” without fully divesting their business interests in a growing and potentially lucrative market. This bifurcation exercise got me thinking about how many other companies are evaluating their supply chain relationships, inventory management, and the predictability of their cost of goods sold.
In the mid-1990s, I had done a lot of work with the MK manufacturing software that ran on the Ingres database. Some issues were performance-related and fixed by database tuning; some were fixed by using average costs instead of a full Bill of Materials (BOM) explosion with dozens of screws in a window; but some were more interesting and more business-focused.
After NAFTA became law, one manufacturer built a facility in Mexico and started manufacturing a few basic but important parts. When I arrived as a Consultant, the main problem they faced was a reject rate of roughly 20% and additional related QA costs. My suggestion was to treat this part (a single piece of steel, like the rotor from a disk brake system) as a component and build in the cost of both scrap and QA. They could then benchmark the costs against other suppliers in an apples-to-apples comparison to determine if they really saved money. That approach worked well for them.
While that approach helped manage costs, it did not address the timeliness of orders or lead time required – important aspects of Just-in-Time (JIT) manufacturing. Additionally, it should be possible to estimate shipping costs by considering changes in petroleum costs or anticipated changes in demand or capacity.
Systems out there claim to estimate the cost and availability of commodities based on various global factors and leading indicators. It is tricky, to say the least, and we can’t anticipate an event like a pandemic. But companies that manage their inventory and production risk best will likely be the ones that succeed in the long run. They will become the most reliable suppliers and have increased profits to invest in further growth and improvement.
The next 2-3 years will be very interesting due to technological advances (especially AI) and geopolitical changes. Those companies that embrace change and focus on real transformation will likely emerge as the new leaders in their segments by 2025.
Where Ideas, Experiences, and Lessons Learned Intersect 