risk management
Playing to Win, versus Playing Not to Lose
Life is funny. There are always ways to justify nearly anything you want (or don’t want) to do. For example, “The timing is not right” (“We’re not ready,” “The market will be better soon,” “We need to save more,” “We need to staff up first,” etc.) Justifications often include things like “We had a bad experience once” or “We are a very conservative organization” – comments that tend to lean towards risk aversion or a lack of confidence.
I’ve seen this in my own business after a large investment failed to yield the desired results, when I was a regional sales and services leader at a “growth-oriented” software company, and as a consultant. The root cause always varies, but the net effect is that those companies play it safe.
Why is that a problem? It may not be. Being content may not be a bad thing. Sometimes the status quo is enough. Having a reliable schedule, manageable stress levels, sufficient funds, and doing something you like with people you like may be the goal. But not everyone is built that way.
Growth usually means stepping out of your comfort zone, taking on risk, recognizing the need to adapt to stay ahead of the curve, and being OK with uncertainty. It means bringing on people with different backgrounds, skill sets, and perspectives than yourself. It can be very hard – especially if you are used to being in control and having the answers.
For me, the solution was twofold.
- We had to accept failure as an inevitable outcome. I believe this is where a lot of people stop. If you view failure as negative, then everything that stems from it (loss of money, a hit to your ego, and other setbacks) becomes your focal point. Lesson Learned: When you view it as a learning and self-improvement opportunity (“cognitive reframing”), it just becomes part of the cost of getting better.
From your team’s perspective, if everyone is as focused on the journey as you are on the outcome, people tend to view challenges logically rather than emotionally (thereby controlling fear). Success truly is a mental game. - We developed a structured approach for future investments (read more about it here). We treated each new venture like a project. It was focused, analytical, and unemotional. With this approach, speculative investments became easier each time. It’s amazing how that distance also helps switch the focus from risk to reward.
This understanding led to a presentation I gave that helped relaunch a company, helped several clients critically assess the risks and rewards of their plans, and may help someone consider whether they are focused on winning or simply on not losing.
As Richard Branson wrote in his book, Screw It, Let’s Do It: Lessons in Life, “If you opt for a safe life, you will never know what it’s like to win.” So, are you ready to play to win?
Using Themes for Enhanced Problem Solving
Thematic Analysis is a powerful qualitative approach used by many consultants. It involves identifying patterns and themes to better understand how and why something happened, providing context for other quantitative analyses. It can also be used when developing strategies and tactics because of its “cause and effect” nature.
Typical analysis tends to be event-based. Something happened that was unexpected. Some type of triggering or compelling event is sought to either stop something from happening or to make something happen. With enough of the right data, you may be able to identify patterns that help predict what will happen next based on past events. This data-based understanding may be simplistic or incomplete, but often it is sufficient.
But people are creatures of habit. If you can identify and understand those habits and place them within the context of a specific environment that includes interactions with others, you may be able to identify patterns within the patterns. Those themes can be much better indicators of what may or may not happen than the data itself. They become better predictors of things to come and can help identify more effective strategies and tactics to achieve your goals.
This approach requires that a person view an event (desired or historical) from various perspectives to help understand:
- Things that are accidental but predictable because of human nature.
- Things that are predictable based on other events and interactions.
- Things that are the logical consequence of a series of events and outcomes.
Aside from the practical implications of this approach, I find it fascinating relative to AI and Predictive Analysis.
For example, you can proactively monitor data, activities, and patterns by understanding recurring themes and triggers. That provides actionable intelligence that can be automated and incorporated into a larger system. Machine Learning and Deep Learning can analyze tremendous volumes of data from various sources in real-time.
Combine that with Semantic Analysis (and products like AllegroGraph) to harness the power of language through taxonomies and ontologies. The monitoring system would better understand what is happening (not just be aware of it), possibly determine how and why it happened, and result in even more focused and accurate predictions. Finally, include spatial and temporal data such as IoT, metadata from photographs, etc., and you should be able to view something as though you were very high up – providing the ability to “see” what is on the path ahead. It is obviously not that simple, but it is exciting.
This approach provides a multi-dimensional view of events and their causality, giving you the means to identify and prevent complex problems before they negatively affect a business.
Keeping these thoughts in mind will help you see details others have missed. Better tools can make for better analysis, better strategies, and better outcomes. Who wouldn’t want that?
Lessons Learned from Small Business Ownership
I learned many valuable lessons over the course of the 8+ years that I owned my consulting business. Many were positive, a few were negative, but all were educational. These lessons shaped my perceptions about and approaches to business, and have served me well. This post will just be the first of many on the topic.
My lessons learned covered many topics: How to structure the business; Business Goals; Risk; Growth Initiatives and Investment; Employees and Benefits; Developing a High-Performance Culture; Marketing and Selling; Hiring and Firing; Bringing in Experts; Partners and Contractors; The need to let go; Exit Strategies and more.
In my case, these lessons learned were compounded by efforts to start a franchise for the consulting system we developed, and then our expansion to the UK with all of the challenges associated with international business. Each new effort built on the success and lessons learned from those previous efforts.
It’s amazing how more significant those lessons are (or at least feel) when the money is coming out of or going into “your own pocket.” Similar decisions at larger companies are generally easier, and (unfortunately) often made without the same degree of due diligence. Having more “skin in the game” does make a difference when it comes to decision-making and risk. I believe that this experience has made me a better leader, custodian of business, and employee – all because of this newfound understanding.
Businesses are usually started because someone is presented with a wonderful opportunity, or because they feel they have a great idea that will sell, or because they feel that they can make more money doing the same work on their own. Let me start by telling you that I believe the last reason is usually the worst reason to start a business. There is a lot of work to running a business, a lot of risk, and many expenses that most people never consider. You start a business because you are running toward something big, and not because you are running away from something.
I started my business because of a great opportunity. There were differences of opinion about growth at the small business I was working for at the time, and this gave me the opportunity to move in a direction that I was more interested in (shifting away from technical consulting and moving toward business/management consulting). Luckily, I had a customer (and now good friend) who believed in my potential and the value that I could bring to his business. He provided both the launch pad and safety net (via a three-month initial contract) that I needed to embark on this endeavor. For me, the most important lesson learned is to start a business for the right reasons.
More to come. And, if you have questions in the meantime, just leave a comment, and I will reply. Below are some of the statistics on Entrepreneurship that can be pretty enlightening:
Bureau of Labor Statistics stats on Entrepreneurship in the US
What’s the Prize If I win?
In consulting and in sales, there is a tendency to believe that if you show someone how to find that proverbial “pot of gold at the end of the rainbow,” they will be motivated to do so. Seasoned professionals will tend to ask, “What problem are you trying to solve?” in order to understand whether there is a real opportunity.
Sometimes a mere pot of gold just isn’t enough to motivate. Usually the motivation is something very personal. What’s in it for them? Not, what’s in it for me?
The skill is in determining what is really important to the decision maker and in what priority, and then demonstrating that the proposed solution will bring them closer to achieving their personal goals.
Case in point. Several years ago I was trying to sell a packaged Business Intelligence (BI) system developed on our database platform to customers most likely to have a need. Qualification performed – check. Interested – check. Proof of value – check. Quick ROI – check. Close the deal – not so fast…
This application was a set of dashboards with 150-200 predefined KPIs (key performance indicators). The premise was that you could quickly tailor and deploy the new BI system with little risk (finding and validating that the data needed was available to support their KPI was the biggest risk, but one that could be identified up-front). The business impact and ROI were there, and we could deliver tangible value at half the cost of a typical similar implementation. Who wouldn’t want that?
I spent several days onsite with the prospect, identified areas of concern and opportunity, and used their data to quantify the potential benefit. Before the end of the week, I was able to show the potential to get an 8x ROI in the first year. Remember, this was estimated using their data, not random or industry figures. Being somewhat conservative, I suggested that even half that amount would be a big success. Look – we found the pot of gold!
Despite this, the deal never closed. This financial services company had a lot of money, and the CIO had a huge budget. Saving $500K+ from this project would be nice, but was not essential. While the impact was there, the urgency was lacking.
What I learned later was that this person was pushing forward an initiative of his own that was highly visible. This new system I proposed had the potential to become a distraction, and he did not need that reputational risk. Had I made this determination sooner, I could have easily repositioned the offering to better align with and support his agenda.
For example, the focus of the system could have shifted from financial savings to project and risk management for his higher priority initiative. The KPIs could be on earned value, scheduling, and deliverables. This probably would have sold, as it would have been far more appealing to this CIO and supported what was important to him (i.e., his prize if he wins). The additional financial savings initially identified would be the icing on the cake, to be reinvested later.
There were several lessons learned from this effort. In this instance, I focused on my personal pot of gold (based on logic and common sense) rather than on my customer’s priorities and prize for winning. That mistake cost me this deal, but it is one I have not made since – helping me win many other deals.
Where Ideas, Experiences, and Lessons Learned Intersect 